May 2026 HPI Report
The Bigger Picture: Navigating Guelph’s May 2026 Market
By: Michael Bennett, Guelph Real Estate Professional
If there is one thing I have learned from my family’s deep roots here, from my grandfather Leo’s days to the development of Bennett Avenue, it is that you cannot judge a landscape by a single season. Guelph’s real estate market is much like the GORBA trails I used to ride. Sometimes you are on a steep climb, other times you are navigating a dip, but it is the long term trek that matters.
As we move through May 2026, we are seeing some fascinating microclimates in our local data. If you are just looking at the monthly headlines, you might be scratching your head. Let’s break down what is actually happening on the streets of the Royal City.
The Monthly Snapshot: A Tale of Two Storeys
In the last 30 days, we have seen a bit of a catch up game.
- 2 Storey Single Family Homes: Up 5.4% this month.
- 1 Storey Homes (Bungalows): Down 1.4%.
Now, before you think bungalows are going out of style, remember that this is exactly why I tell my clients to zoom out. When we look at the 3 month trend, these two housing types are up only marginally and are actually performing very similarly. Monthly blips often reflect which specific houses sold. A few luxury listings in Old University or near Cutten Fields can skew an average quickly, rather than representing a shift in actual value.
The Condo and Townhome Correction
While detached homes are holding steady, the longer term trend shows a slight cooling for townhomes and apartment style condos.
When we look back a full year, the Pandemic Run up continues to recalibrate. Guelph apartments are down 10.7% year over year. > Insight: Why the double digit drop? It is a supply and demand story. Many investors are divesting of units that are no longer cash flow positive due to current mortgage rates and a surge of unabsorbed inventory, particularly in the GTA spillover market.
Benchmarking the HPI: 10 and 20 Year Views
It is easy to get caught up in the retraction talk, especially since some values have returned to early 2021 levels. However, let’s put on our historical lenses.
Guelph has a reputation for being a resilient 5% City. When we use the Home Price Index (HPI), which provides an apples to apples comparison by looking at a typical home, the long term math remains incredibly consistent.
| Timeline | Average Annual Gain (Approx.) | Market Context |
| 10 Year Trend | 5% per year | Includes the 2017 spike and the 2020 to 2022 surge. |
| 20 Year Trend | 5% per year | Steady growth through the 2008 recession and local expansion. |
The Michael Bennett Take
The only category truly lagging behind that historical 5% benchmark is the apartment segment, which is feeling the weight of the significant oversupply built over the last 15 years.
If you are living in The Ward, Victoria North, or near Riverside Park, your dirt is still a blue chip investment. Real estate is not a sprint; it is a long distance ride through the Guelph Lake system. We are returning to a balanced, predictable market, and frankly, for the long term health of our community, that is a good thing.
Thinking of making a move or just want to chat about the history of Bennett Avenue? I am always around for a coffee or a chat. And if you have an overstuffed garage that is keeping you from listing, I still have my truck. I am never too busy for a dump run for a friend.
Michael Bennett
Guelph Real Estate Professional, Community Advocate
