Guelph Real Estate: A Q1 2026 Update

By Michael Bennett

As we move through the first quarter of 2026, I’ve been spending a lot of time looking out toward the GORBA trails. I’d love to be out there on the bike, but as any local rider knows, the ground is currently far too wet. Riding now would just lead to trail erosion, and as a community, volunteers have worked too hard on that system to damage it for the sake of a ride.

In many ways, the real estate market is in a similar “waiting” period, stable, but requiring a careful approach to avoid missteps. Here is my take on where we stand and where we are headed.

The HPI: Stability in the Royal City

When I’m chatting with friends at Cutten Fields, the conversation usually turns to house prices. I always point them toward the CREA Home Price Index (HPI), the purest indication of market health. It filters out the noise and gives us the facts.

In the first three months of 2026, the data shows a resilient Guelph:

• Single-Family Homes: Rose by a modest 1.2%.
• Apartments/Condos: Held steady at -0.3%, performing better than many anticipated.

While transaction volumes remain lower than historical averages, these numbers prove that Guelph remains a “blue chip” investment. The urgency we saw from 2016 through 2022 has dissipated, replaced by a more calculated, patient buyer.

The HST Rebate & The Missing Cranes

There has been a lot of talk about the HST Rebate for first-time buyers and investors, and it’s a bit of a double-edged sword.

The most important thing to note right now? There are no cranes in the Guelph sky. We aren’t seeing a massive wave of new starts. This means the HST Rebate will likely only apply to existing “unabsorbed units”, the inventory that is already sitting on the shelves.

While this rebate will likely create a surge of interest and help move those units, it could have the adverse effect of artificially suppressing the value of similar resale units in the short term. However, once that unabsorbed inventory is gone, the lack of new construction means we are headed for further scarcity. Time will tell how this plays out, but for the savvy observer, the long-term supply-chain issues are clear.

Looking Ahead: Q2 Forecast

As we head into the next quarter, I expect more of the same:

1. Single-Family Homes: Continued modest gains as families look to settle into established neighbourhoods like Victoria North and Riverside Park areas.
2. Apartment Market: Flat or near-flat results as the market works through the current inventory and adjusts to the new tax incentives.

Whether you’re curious about the value of your heritage home in St. Patrick’s Ward or navigating the condo market, I’m here to provide the local context that data alone can’t capture.

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Postcard from the Road:

While the trails are drying out, I’m sticking to the pavement and catching up on some photography around the Metalworks. If you’re around The Ward and want to talk shop, or to know where the best place to donate things from your over-stuffed garage are, you know where to find me.

Michael Bennett – Guelph Real Estate Professional